Dems now need to choose worse over worser

 

You got to know when to hold 'em,

Know when to fold 'em.

 

As I write this, we are in the second day of the government shutdown, which resulted when the Senate failed to approve yet another short-term continuing resolution that would have funded the government through February 19 but without

containing an agreement to provide legal status for the Dreamers, whose status is endangered by the looming expiration of DACA. Most Democrats opposed the House-passed funding measure, as did several Republicans.

 

According to most news reports, Shutdown Day One has yielded little other than finger-pointing on both sides, although the Washington Post is reporting that a bipartisan group of senators has been been discussing the parameters of another short-term funding bill, with “an implicit agreement to hold votes at some point in the coming weeks on a bipartisan immigration deal.” Suggestions by some Democrats for an extremely short CR of only a few days to add urgency to the negotiation process on an immigration deal have fallen on deaf ears. Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has scheduled a vote on another short-term bill, identical to the one rejected on Friday but for three weeks rather than four. Congressional Republican leaders and the President have both announced that they will not negotiate on an immigration deal while the government is closed.

 

Despite the justice of their position and the Republicans’ obvious intransigence, the Democrats are playing with fire. They seem to be assuming that public opinion will be strongly on their side, based on some (but not all) polls, the wide support for allowing the Dreamers to remain, Trump’s historic unpopularity, and the fact that Republicans are in control of the presidency and both houses of Congress.

 

I don’t share that optimism, assuming they continue their opposition to the pending proposal to reopen the government. In the most recent prior shutdowns, it’s the party (previously the Republicans) that has attempted to accomplish policy objectives via shutdown that has been the loser, as opposed to those advocating a “clean” spending bill to keep the government running. This time the Democrats face an additional obstacle, due to the time-sensitivity of their position with the end of DACA rapidly approaching. In terms of purely political power, pretty much all the Democrats have in their tool chest is the ability to keep the government closed as long as (nearly) all of them choose to do so, but there’s nothing to keep the Republicans from refusing to negotiate or to otherwise cooperate until the DACA clock expires. Bottom-line, DACA and the Dems lose unless there’s a bill that can pass both houses and get signed by the President. In terms of public opinion, I expect that sooner or later, the appeal of an open government with the possibility of an immigration compromise will win out over an ongoing shutdown with no progress being made.

 

It’s not a question of goals or support for the Dreamers, but rather one of tactics. When you’re at war and not doing well in a particular battle, sometimes it’s better to beat a temporary retreat and re-engage under more favorable circumstances. In baseball, if you’re getting clobbered one day, you take the opportunity to give your regulars a few innings off, send in the pitcher you’re normally afraid to use in order to save the reliable arms in your bullpen, and live to fight another day. If you’re starting a long night of poker in a Kenny Rogers song, you don’t bet the limit at 9:00 holding a pair of deuces; you recognize that your chances are likely to improve later.

 

So it should be today. The Democrats in the Senate were correct to vote as they did Friday night – they demonstrated the power they have, confirmed their commitment to getting a reasonable and humane agreement to protect the Dreamers, and highlighted both the “my way or the highway” attitude so far of the opposition and the White House confusion and disarray that has brought us to this point. Since the Republicans are now apparently willing to provide a (small) fig leaf of a shorter funding extension, take it, but do so with a public relations strategy in mind.

 

What’s really needed are opportunities to vote on any and all potential DACA-for-immigration-concessions bills. Hey, if Republican Bob Goodlatte and his buddies in the House think they can get their hardass immigration “reform” proposal through both houses of Congress, let them try. Vote on the original “Gang of Six” proposal, and/or whatever bipartisan successor may be in the works. Most importantly, don’t let them avoid votes by using the excuse that “we don’t know what the President will accept.” Until a bill actually lands on Trump’s desk, no one knows from minute to minute what he will or won’t accept, including Trump himself. Hold their feet to the fire every day they refuse to hold votes on proposals with bipartisan support, and be ready to do whatever’s necessary at the end of the extension if that hasn’t happened. And if the President decides to veto a bipartisan bill enacted by both the Senate and the House, that’s on him.

 

This course may or may not actually be possible, as cooler heads do not necessarily prevail in such a poisoned environment. At the very least, Democrats should agree that they remain united on goals even if divided on strategy. I happen to feel that playing it smart has a better chance of success than being headstrong, and I fear the consequences if that path is not taken.